Millwall
09:00 PM
Sep 8
Newcastle United
Millwall – Newcastle United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.20 – 1.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Newcastle United away from home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.20 goals for Millwall and 1.69 for Newcastle United. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 63 %. Over their last five matches, Millwall took 9 points and Newcastle United 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Millwall | 6.00 | 15 % | +64.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | +1.2 % |
| 2Newcastle United | 1.46 | 63 % | -27.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Millwall
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Newcastle United
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Millwall | Form and statistics | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 1556 | Elo | 1724 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 13.4 | Shots / match | 12.4 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Millwall – Newcastle United?
Our model gives 2 · Newcastle United a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Millwall win 27 %, draw 23 %, Newcastle United win 50 %.
What is the most likely score for Millwall – Newcastle United?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
