Real Madrid
09:00 PM
Sep 8
Internazionale
Real Madrid – Internazionale
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.99 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 66 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Madrid at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.99 goals for Real Madrid and 1.43 for Internazionale. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Real Madrid took 12 points and Internazionale 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 66 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 1.59 | 60 % | -17.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.45 | 21 % | -14.7 % |
| 2Internazionale | 5.13 | 19 % | +46.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Internazionale
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Real Madrid | Form and statistics | Internazionale |
|---|---|---|
| 1866 | Elo | 1874 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 16.0 | Shots / match | 17.4 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Madrid – Internazionale?
Our model gives 1 · Real Madrid a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Madrid win 52 %, draw 19 %, Internazionale win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Madrid – Internazionale?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
