Borussia Dortmund
3-2
Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.45 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal. The model predicted a win for Borussia Dortmund (65 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.45 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.11 for Villarreal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Borussia Dortmund took 15 points and Villarreal 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Borussia Dortmund, 0 draws, 0 wins for Villarreal. Over 2.5 goals: 69 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Dortmund | 1.73 | 55 % | +12.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | -32.0 % |
| 2Villarreal | 4.47 | 21 % | -20.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Borussia Dortmund
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Villarreal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Borussia Dortmund
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Villarreal
- Borussia Dortmund4-0Villarreal
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal?
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal. The model predicted a win for Borussia Dortmund (65 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal?
Our model gives 1 · Borussia Dortmund a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Borussia Dortmund win 65 %, draw 17 %, Villarreal win 18 %.