Shanghai Port
Chengdu Rongcheng
Shanghai Port – Chengdu Rongcheng
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 1.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Shanghai Port at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.63 goals for Shanghai Port and 1.44 for Chengdu Rongcheng. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, Shanghai Port took 11 points and Chengdu Rongcheng 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Shanghai Port, 0 draws, 3 wins for Chengdu Rongcheng. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shanghai Port | 2.00 | 46 % | -19.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 24 % | -4.1 % |
| 2Chengdu Rongcheng | 3.20 | 29 % | +10.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Shanghai Port
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Chengdu Rongcheng
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Shanghai Port
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Chengdu Rongcheng
- Chengdu Rongcheng0-1Shanghai Port
- Chengdu Rongcheng4-1Shanghai Port
- Shanghai Port1-3Chengdu Rongcheng
- Chengdu Rongcheng3-1Shanghai Port
- Shanghai Port2-0Chengdu Rongcheng
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shanghai Port – Chengdu Rongcheng?
Our model gives 1 · Shanghai Port a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Shanghai Port win 40 %, draw 25 %, Chengdu Rongcheng win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Shanghai Port – Chengdu Rongcheng?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.