Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vissel Kobe away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.16 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.43 for Vissel Kobe. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fagiano Okayama took 9 points and Vissel Kobe 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Fagiano Okayama, 0 draws, 3 wins for Vissel Kobe. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fagiano Okayama | 2.85 | 33 % | -17.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -9.1 % |
| 2Vissel Kobe | 2.50 | 38 % | +6.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Fagiano Okayama
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vissel Kobe
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Fagiano Okayama
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Vissel Kobe
- Vissel Kobe0-3Fagiano Okayama
- Fagiano Okayama1-4Vissel Kobe
- Fagiano Okayama1-2Vissel Kobe
- Vissel Kobe2-0Fagiano Okayama
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe?
Our model gives 2 · Vissel Kobe a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fagiano Okayama win 29 %, draw 28 %, Vissel Kobe win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.