Bolton Wanderers
09:00 PM
Sep 8
West Ham United
Bolton Wanderers – West Ham United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.08 – 1.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards West Ham United away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.08 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.78 for West Ham United. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Bolton Wanderers took 4 points and West Ham United 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bolton Wanderers | 4.75 | 20 % | +9.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +5.0 % |
| 2West Ham United | 1.62 | 58 % | -16.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Bolton Wanderers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
West Ham United
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Bolton Wanderers | Form and statistics | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| 1455 | Elo | 1626 |
| 1.00 | Goals scored / match | 2.20 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 13.0 | Shots / match | 15.1 |
| 20 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bolton Wanderers – West Ham United?
Our model gives 2 · West Ham United a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bolton Wanderers win 23 %, draw 26 %, West Ham United win 51 %.
What is the most likely score for Bolton Wanderers – West Ham United?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
