Toluca
Atlético de San Luis
Toluca – Atlético de San Luis
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 72 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.45 – 0.94
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Toluca 1-1 Atlético de San Luis. The model predicted a win for Toluca (72 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.45 goals for Toluca and 0.94 for Atlético de San Luis. Bookmakers say the same thing: 70 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Toluca took 7 points and Atlético de San Luis 6 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Toluca, 1 draw, 0 wins for Atlético de San Luis. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Toluca | 1.33 | 70 % | -3.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | -7.9 % |
| 2Atlético de San Luis | 7.50 | 13 % | -18.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Toluca
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético de San Luis
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Toluca
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Atlético de San Luis
- Toluca1-1Atlético de San Luis
- Atlético de San Luis1-3Toluca
- Atlético de San Luis0-1Toluca
- Toluca2-1Atlético de San Luis
- Atlético de San Luis1-5Toluca
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Toluca – Atlético de San Luis?
Final score: Toluca 1-1 Atlético de San Luis. The model predicted a win for Toluca (72 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Toluca – Atlético de San Luis?
Our model gives 1 · Toluca a 72 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Toluca win 72 %, draw 17 %, Atlético de San Luis win 11 %.