São Paulo
Vasco da Gama
São Paulo – Vasco da Gama
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: São Paulo 1-0 Vasco da Gama. The model predicted a win for São Paulo (40 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.28 goals for São Paulo and 1.12 for Vasco da Gama. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, São Paulo took 7 points and Vasco da Gama 13 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for São Paulo, 0 draws, 3 wins for Vasco da Gama. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1São Paulo | 2.10 | 45 % | -16.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +0.4 % |
| 2Vasco da Gama | 3.45 | 27 % | +7.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
São Paulo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vasco da Gama
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- São Paulo
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama2-1São Paulo
- Vasco da Gama0-2São Paulo
- São Paulo1-3Vasco da Gama
- São Paulo3-0Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama4-1São Paulo
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of São Paulo – Vasco da Gama?
Final score: São Paulo 1-0 Vasco da Gama. The model predicted a win for São Paulo (40 %): correct prediction.
Who will win São Paulo – Vasco da Gama?
Our model gives 1 · São Paulo a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: São Paulo win 40 %, draw 29 %, Vasco da Gama win 31 %.