Guadalajara
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara – Tigres UANL
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.88 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Guadalajara at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.88 goals for Guadalajara and 1.08 for Tigres UANL. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, Guadalajara took 8 points and Tigres UANL 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Guadalajara, 2 draws, 2 wins for Tigres UANL. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Guadalajara | 1.83 | 51 % | +2.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -21.6 % |
| 2Tigres UANL | 4.20 | 22 % | -9.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Guadalajara
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tigres UANL
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Guadalajara
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Tigres UANL
- Guadalajara2-0Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL3-1Guadalajara
- Tigres UANL4-1Guadalajara
- Guadalajara0-0Tigres UANL
- Guadalajara1-1Tigres UANL
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Guadalajara – Tigres UANL?
Our model gives 1 · Guadalajara a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Guadalajara win 56 %, draw 22 %, Tigres UANL win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Guadalajara – Tigres UANL?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.