Atlético Tucumán
Rosario Central
Atlético Tucumán – Rosario Central
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 0-115 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.84 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Rosario Central away from home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.84 goals for Atlético Tucumán and 1.40 for Rosario Central. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Atlético Tucumán took 4 points and Rosario Central 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Atlético Tucumán, 1 draw, 3 wins for Rosario Central. Over 2.5 goals: 39 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Tucumán | 3.15 | 30 % | -28.0 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 32 % | -11.0 % |
| 2Rosario Central | 2.40 | 39 % | +12.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlético Tucumán
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rosario Central
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Atlético Tucumán
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Rosario Central
- Rosario Central2-1Atlético Tucumán
- Atlético Tucumán0-0Rosario Central
- Rosario Central3-1Atlético Tucumán
- Rosario Central1-0Atlético Tucumán
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético Tucumán – Rosario Central?
Our model gives 2 · Rosario Central a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Tucumán win 23 %, draw 30 %, Rosario Central win 47 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Tucumán – Rosario Central?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.