Athletico-PR
Palmeiras
Athletico-PR – Palmeiras
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palmeiras away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.27 goals for Athletico-PR and 1.51 for Palmeiras. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Athletico-PR took 8 points and Palmeiras 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Athletico-PR, 0 draws, 3 wins for Palmeiras. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletico-PR | 2.90 | 32 % | -10.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -4.9 % |
| 2Palmeiras | 2.35 | 40 % | -3.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Athletico-PR
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Palmeiras
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Athletico-PR
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Palmeiras
- Palmeiras1-0Athletico-PR
- Athletico-PR0-2Palmeiras
- Palmeiras0-2Athletico-PR
- Palmeiras1-0Athletico-PR
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Athletico-PR – Palmeiras?
Our model gives 2 · Palmeiras a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Athletico-PR win 31 %, draw 28 %, Palmeiras win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for Athletico-PR – Palmeiras?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.