Atlético-MG
Coritiba
Atlético-MG – Coritiba
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.06 – 0.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético-MG at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.06 goals for Atlético-MG and 0.85 for Coritiba. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlético-MG took 11 points and Coritiba 2 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Atlético-MG, 0 draws, 2 wins for Coritiba. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético-MG | 1.51 | 62 % | -2.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -14.1 % |
| 2Coritiba | 6.00 | 16 % | -13.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Coritiba
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Atlético-MG
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Coritiba
- Coritiba2-0Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG1-2Coritiba
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético-MG – Coritiba?
Our model gives 1 · Atlético-MG a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético-MG win 65 %, draw 21 %, Coritiba win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético-MG – Coritiba?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.