Tijuana
Puebla
Tijuana – Puebla
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.69 – 1.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Tijuana at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.69 goals for Tijuana and 1.01 for Puebla. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Tijuana took 5 points and Puebla 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Tijuana, 1 draw, 2 wins for Puebla. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tijuana | 1.80 | 52 % | +3.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -13.8 % |
| 2Puebla | 4.20 | 22 % | -17.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Tijuana
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Puebla
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Tijuana
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Puebla
- Tijuana0-0Puebla
- Puebla4-3Tijuana
- Puebla2-0Tijuana
- Tijuana2-1Puebla
- Tijuana3-1Puebla
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tijuana – Puebla?
Our model gives 1 · Tijuana a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tijuana win 57 %, draw 23 %, Puebla win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Tijuana – Puebla?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.