Atlante
Pumas UNAM
Atlante – Pumas UNAM
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlante at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.48 goals for Atlante and 1.30 for Pumas UNAM. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlante took 5 points and Pumas UNAM 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlante | 2.45 | 39 % | -1.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -0.9 % |
| 2Pumas UNAM | 2.75 | 34 % | -13.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlante
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pumas UNAM
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlante – Pumas UNAM?
Our model gives 1 · Atlante a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlante win 40 %, draw 28 %, Pumas UNAM win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlante – Pumas UNAM?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.