Wrexham
1-1
Burnley
Wrexham – Burnley
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.14
The short version
Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Burnley. The model predicted a win for Wrexham (44 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Wrexham and 1.14 for Burnley. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Wrexham took 6 points and Burnley 2 points. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wrexham | 2.05 | 46 % | -10.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -6.8 % |
| 2Burnley | 3.63 | 26 % | +5.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Wrexham
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burnley
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Wrexham – Burnley?
Final score: Wrexham 1-1 Burnley. The model predicted a win for Wrexham (44 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Wrexham – Burnley?
Our model gives 1 · Wrexham a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Wrexham win 44 %, draw 27 %, Burnley win 29 %.