Las Palmas
Castellón
Las Palmas – Castellón
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Castellón away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.16 goals for Las Palmas and 1.37 for Castellón. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 47 %. Over their last five matches, Las Palmas took 4 points and Castellón 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Las Palmas, 1 draw, 1 win for Castellón. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Las Palmas | 3.40 | 28 % | +8.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | +5.4 % |
| 2Castellón | 2.00 | 47 % | -21.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Las Palmas
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Castellón
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Las Palmas
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Castellón
- Las Palmas1-1Castellón
- Castellón1-0Las Palmas
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Las Palmas – Castellón?
Our model gives 2 · Castellón a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Las Palmas win 32 %, draw 29 %, Castellón win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Las Palmas – Castellón?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.