Troyes
Lens
Troyes – Lens
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lens away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.16 goals for Troyes and 1.78 for Lens. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Troyes took 3 points and Lens 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Troyes, 0 draws, 1 win for Lens. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Troyes | 3.90 | 24 % | -7.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | -0.4 % |
| 2Lens | 1.85 | 52 % | -5.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Troyes
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lens
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Troyes
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Lens
- Troyes2-4Lens
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Troyes – Lens?
Our model gives 2 · Lens a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Troyes win 24 %, draw 25 %, Lens win 51 %.
What is the most likely score for Troyes – Lens?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.