Al Diriyah
Al Taawoun
Al Diriyah – Al Taawoun
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 35 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Taawoun away from home (35 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.29 goals for Al Diriyah and 1.25 for Al Taawoun. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 28 %. Over their last five matches, Al Diriyah took 7 points and Al Taawoun 1 point. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Diriyah | 2.00 | 46 % | -33.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +11.2 % |
| 2Al Taawoun | 3.35 | 28 % | +18.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Diriyah
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Taawoun
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Diriyah – Al Taawoun?
Our model gives 2 · Al Taawoun a 35 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Diriyah win 33 %, draw 31 %, Al Taawoun win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Diriyah – Al Taawoun?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.