Newcastle United
Aston Villa
Newcastle United – Aston Villa
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Aston Villa away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.29 goals for Newcastle United and 1.79 for Aston Villa. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.00, the predicted outcome carries +27.2 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Newcastle United took 7 points and Aston Villa 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Newcastle United, 1 draw, 2 wins for Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle United | 2.25 | 42 % | -29.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.67 | 26 % | -3.2 % |
| 2Aston Villa | 3.00 |
Form and statistics
Newcastle United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Aston Villa
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Newcastle United
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-3Newcastle United
- Newcastle United0-2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa0-0Newcastle United
- Aston Villa4-1Newcastle United
- Newcastle United3-0Aston Villa
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle United – Aston Villa?
Our model gives 2 · Aston Villa a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Newcastle United win 31 %, draw 26 %, Aston Villa win 42 %.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle United – Aston Villa?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.