Fenerbahce
Alanyaspor
Fenerbahce – Alanyaspor
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 75 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.47 – 0.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fenerbahce at home (75 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.47 goals for Fenerbahce and 0.84 for Alanyaspor. Bookmakers say the same thing: 72 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fenerbahce took 8 points and Alanyaspor 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Fenerbahce, 2 draws, 0 wins for Alanyaspor. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fenerbahce | 1.29 | 72 % | -3.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | -13.5 % |
| 2Alanyaspor | 8.50 | 11 % | -18.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Fenerbahce
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Alanyaspor
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Fenerbahce
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Alanyaspor
- Alanyaspor2-3Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce2-2Alanyaspor
- Alanyaspor0-2Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce3-0Alanyaspor
- Fenerbahce2-2Alanyaspor
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fenerbahce – Alanyaspor?
Our model gives 1 · Fenerbahce a 75 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fenerbahce win 75 %, draw 16 %, Alanyaspor win 10 %.
What is the most likely score for Fenerbahce – Alanyaspor?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.