Predictions are closed for this match.
Southampton
08:45 PM
Sep 8
Swansea City
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Southampton | 1.83 | 51 % | +5.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -15.9 % |
| 2Swansea City | 3.95 | 24 % | -20.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Southampton
Swansea City
| Southampton | Form and statistics | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| 1614 | Elo | 1510 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 16.5 | Shots / match | 13.1 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Southampton a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Southampton win 58 %, draw 22 %, Swansea City win 20 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 56 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.83 for Southampton, 3.80 for the draw, 3.95 for Swansea City.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Championship), at St. Mary's Stadium.
The model leans towards Southampton at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.88 goals for Southampton and 1.05 for Swansea City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, Southampton took 8 points and Swansea City 11 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Southampton, 1 draw, 0 wins for Swansea City. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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