Southampton
3-1
Swansea City
Southampton – Swansea City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.88 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Southampton 3-1 Swansea City. The model predicted a win for Southampton (58 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.88 goals for Southampton and 1.05 for Swansea City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, Southampton took 8 points and Swansea City 11 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Southampton, 1 draw, 0 wins for Swansea City. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Southampton | 1.83 | 51 % | +5.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -15.9 % |
| 2Swansea City | 3.95 | 24 % | -20.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Southampton
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Swansea City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Southampton
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Swansea City
- Swansea City1-2Southampton
- Southampton0-0Swansea City
- Southampton3-0Swansea City
- Swansea City1-3Southampton
- Southampton5-0Swansea City
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Southampton – Swansea City?
Final score: Southampton 3-1 Swansea City. The model predicted a win for Southampton (58 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Southampton – Swansea City?
Our model gives 1 · Southampton a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Southampton win 58 %, draw 22 %, Swansea City win 20 %.