Real Betis
Barcelona
Real Betis – Barcelona
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 2.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Barcelona away from home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.29 goals for Real Betis and 2.17 for Barcelona. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Real Betis took 13 points and Barcelona 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Real Betis, 2 draws, 3 wins for Barcelona. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Betis | 6.00 | 16 % | +20.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | +13.0 % |
| 2Barcelona | 1.42 | 67 % | -15.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Betis
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Real Betis
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Barcelona
- Barcelona3-1Real Betis
- Real Betis3-5Barcelona
- Barcelona1-1Real Betis
- Barcelona5-1Real Betis
- Real Betis2-2Barcelona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Betis – Barcelona?
Our model gives 2 · Barcelona a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Betis win 20 %, draw 21 %, Barcelona win 59 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Betis – Barcelona?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.