AIK
IFK Göteborg
AIK – IFK Göteborg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AIK at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.63 goals for AIK and 1.40 for IFK Göteborg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, AIK took 2 points and IFK Göteborg 15 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for AIK, 0 draws, 1 win for IFK Göteborg. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AIK | 2.50 | 37 % | +9.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -14.4 % |
| 2IFK Göteborg | 2.50 | 37 % | -18.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
AIK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
IFK Göteborg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- AIK
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- IFK Göteborg
- IFK Göteborg1-2AIK
- IFK Göteborg2-1AIK
- AIK3-0IFK Göteborg
- IFK Göteborg1-2AIK
- AIK5-2IFK Göteborg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AIK – IFK Göteborg?
Our model gives 1 · AIK a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AIK win 44 %, draw 23 %, IFK Göteborg win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for AIK – IFK Göteborg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.