Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg – Paris Saint-Germain
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 68 %
- Most likely score
- 0-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.96 – 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris Saint-Germain away from home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.96 goals for Strasbourg and 2.51 for Paris Saint-Germain. Bookmakers say the same thing: 68 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Strasbourg took 7 points and Paris Saint-Germain 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Strasbourg, 1 draw, 3 wins for Paris Saint-Germain. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Strasbourg | 6.38 | 15 % | -17.3 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | +6.3 % |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 1.40 | 68 % | -5.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Strasbourg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Strasbourg
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Strasbourg1-2Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain3-3Strasbourg
- Strasbourg2-1Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain4-2Strasbourg
- Strasbourg1-2Paris Saint-Germain
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Strasbourg – Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model gives 2 · Paris Saint-Germain a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Strasbourg win 13 %, draw 19 %, Paris Saint-Germain win 68 %.
What is the most likely score for Strasbourg – Paris Saint-Germain?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.