Mantova
Palermo
Mantova – Palermo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.36 – 1.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palermo away from home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.36 goals for Mantova and 1.39 for Palermo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Mantova took 8 points and Palermo 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Mantova, 3 draws, 2 wins for Palermo. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mantova | 3.30 | 28 % | +16.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -4.2 % |
| 2Palermo | 2.15 | 43 % | -23.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Mantova
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Palermo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Mantova
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Palermo
- Palermo5-2Mantova
- Palermo2-1Mantova
- Mantova1-1Palermo
- Palermo2-2Mantova
- Mantova0-0Palermo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mantova – Palermo?
Our model gives 2 · Palermo a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mantova win 35 %, draw 29 %, Palermo win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for Mantova – Palermo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.