Eibar
Mallorca
Eibar – Mallorca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Eibar at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Eibar and 1.12 for Mallorca. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, Eibar took 12 points and Mallorca 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eibar | 2.60 | 36 % | +6.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.00 | 31 % | -10.2 % |
| 2Mallorca | 2.85 | 33 % | -17.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Eibar
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mallorca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Eibar – Mallorca?
Our model gives 1 · Eibar a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Eibar win 41 %, draw 30 %, Mallorca win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Eibar – Mallorca?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.