Nordmore Stadion
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK – Aalesund
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.67 – 1.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Kristiansund BK at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.67 goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.42 for Aalesund. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Kristiansund BK took 4 points and Aalesund 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 draw, 0 wins for Aalesund. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kristiansund BK | 2.40 | 39 % | +12.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -8.1 % |
| 2Aalesund | 2.60 | 36 % | -25.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Kristiansund BK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Aalesund
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Kristiansund BK
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Aalesund
- Aalesund1-1Kristiansund BK
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kristiansund BK – Aalesund?
Our model gives 1 · Kristiansund BK a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Kristiansund BK win 47 %, draw 25 %, Aalesund win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Kristiansund BK – Aalesund?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.