St Johnstone
Dundee United
St Johnstone – Dundee United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Dundee United away from home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.28 goals for St Johnstone and 1.33 for Dundee United. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, St Johnstone took 8 points and Dundee United 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for St Johnstone, 0 draws, 3 wins for Dundee United. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1St Johnstone | 2.56 | 36 % | -9.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -1.8 % |
| 2Dundee United | 2.50 | 37 % | -8.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
St Johnstone
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Dundee United
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- St Johnstone
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Dundee United
- Dundee United1-0St Johnstone
- St Johnstone1-2Dundee United
- Dundee United2-0St Johnstone
- St Johnstone1-0Dundee United
Frequently asked questions
Who will win St Johnstone – Dundee United?
Our model gives 2 · Dundee United a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: St Johnstone win 36 %, draw 28 %, Dundee United win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for St Johnstone – Dundee United?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.