Derby County
Stoke City
Derby County – Stoke City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.38 – 1.20
The short version
Final score: Derby County 0-1 Stoke City. The model predicted a win for Derby County (42 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.38 goals for Derby County and 1.20 for Stoke City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 33 %. Over their last five matches, Derby County took 2 points and Stoke City 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Derby County, 1 draw, 2 wins for Stoke City. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 2.88 | 33 % | +21.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -5.7 % |
| 2Stoke City | 2.35 | 40 % | -28.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Derby County
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Stoke City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Derby County
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Stoke City
- Derby County2-0Stoke City
- Stoke City3-1Derby County
- Derby County0-0Stoke City
- Stoke City2-1Derby County
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Derby County – Stoke City?
Final score: Derby County 0-1 Stoke City. The model predicted a win for Derby County (42 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Derby County – Stoke City?
Our model gives 1 · Derby County a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Derby County win 42 %, draw 27 %, Stoke City win 30 %.