Brentford
Liverpool
Brentford – Liverpool
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Liverpool away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.48 goals for Brentford and 1.52 for Liverpool. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Brentford took 9 points and Liverpool 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Brentford, 1 draw, 3 wins for Liverpool. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brentford | 2.35 | 41 % | -13.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.73 | 26 % | -1.6 % |
| 2Liverpool | 2.84 | 34 % | +4.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Brentford
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Brentford
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Liverpool
- Liverpool1-1Brentford
- Brentford3-2Liverpool
- Brentford0-2Liverpool
- Liverpool2-0Brentford
- Brentford1-4Liverpool
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brentford – Liverpool?
Our model gives 2 · Liverpool a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Brentford win 37 %, draw 26 %, Liverpool win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Brentford – Liverpool?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.