Predictions are closed for this match.
Club Brugge
06:45 PM
Sep 8
Aston Villa
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Club Brugge | 2.50 | 38 % | +46.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.58 | 27 % | -32.3 % |
| 2Aston Villa | 2.73 | 35 % | -38.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Club Brugge
Aston Villa
| Club Brugge | Form and statistics | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1800 | Elo | 1762 |
| 2.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 19.2 | Shots / match | 12.5 |
| 80 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Club Brugge a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Club Brugge win 59 %, draw 19 %, Aston Villa win 23 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 64 %, and both teams scoring at 62 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.50 for Club Brugge, 3.58 for the draw, 2.73 for Aston Villa.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (Champions League), at Jan Breydel Stadium.
The model leans towards Club Brugge at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.08 goals for Club Brugge and 1.22 for Aston Villa. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 38 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.50, the predicted outcome carries +46.3 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Club Brugge took 12 points and Aston Villa 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Club Brugge, 0 draws, 2 wins for Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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