Schalke 04
Mainz
Schalke 04 – Mainz
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 1.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mainz away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.55 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.67 for Mainz. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Schalke 04 took 5 points and Mainz 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Schalke 04, 0 draws, 0 wins for Mainz. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schalke 04 | 3.02 | 31 % | +2.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -1.9 % |
| 2Mainz | 2.20 | 43 % | -14.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Schalke 04
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mainz
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Schalke 04
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Mainz
- Mainz2-3Schalke 04
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Schalke 04 – Mainz?
Our model gives 2 · Mainz a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Schalke 04 win 34 %, draw 27 %, Mainz win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Schalke 04 – Mainz?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.