Venezia
Napoli
Venezia – Napoli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.48
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Napoli away from home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.16 goals for Venezia and 1.48 for Napoli. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Venezia took no points and Napoli 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Venezia, 1 draw, 1 win for Napoli. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Venezia | 4.40 | 21 % | +22.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 23 % | +8.3 % |
| 2Napoli | 1.66 | 56 % | -25.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Venezia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Napoli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Venezia
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Napoli
- Venezia0-0Napoli
- Napoli1-0Venezia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Venezia – Napoli?
Our model gives 2 · Napoli a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Venezia win 28 %, draw 27 %, Napoli win 45 %.
What is the most likely score for Venezia – Napoli?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.