Carrarese
Modena
Carrarese – Modena
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.14 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Carrarese 2-1 Modena. The model predicted a win for Modena (38 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.14 goals for Carrarese and 1.30 for Modena. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Carrarese took 4 points and Modena 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Carrarese, 1 draw, 2 wins for Modena. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Carrarese | 4.40 | 21 % | +39.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +8.0 % |
| 2Modena | 1.80 | 52 % | -32.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Carrarese
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Modena
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Carrarese
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Modena
- Modena2-0Carrarese
- Carrarese0-0Modena
- Carrarese2-1Modena
- Modena2-0Carrarese
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Carrarese – Modena?
Final score: Carrarese 2-1 Modena. The model predicted a win for Modena (38 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Carrarese – Modena?
Our model gives 2 · Modena a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Carrarese win 32 %, draw 30 %, Modena win 38 %.