Predictions are closed for this match.
AEK Athens
06:45 PM
Sep 8
LASK Linz
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AEK Athens | 1.72 | 55 % | +6.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | -29.6 % |
| 2LASK Linz | 4.45 | 21 % | -9.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
AEK Athens
LASK Linz
| AEK Athens | Form and statistics | LASK Linz |
|---|---|---|
| 1760 | Elo | 1690 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 2.80 |
| 0.40 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 16.1 | Shots / match | 20.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 90 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 6 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · AEK Athens a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AEK Athens win 62 %, draw 18 %, LASK Linz win 20 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 66 %, and both teams scoring at 63 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.72 for AEK Athens, 4.00 for the draw, 4.45 for LASK Linz.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (Champions League), at OPAP Arena.
The model leans towards AEK Athens at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.16 goals for AEK Athens and 1.24 for LASK Linz. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, AEK Athens took 11 points and LASK Linz 12 points. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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