Ascoli
Empoli
Ascoli – Empoli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 17, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.63 – 0.83
The short version
Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Empoli. The model predicted a win for Ascoli (56 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.63 goals for Ascoli and 0.83 for Empoli. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, Ascoli took 8 points and Empoli 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ascoli | 1.90 | 50 % | +5.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -8.9 % |
| 2Empoli | 4.10 | 23 % | -24.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ascoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Empoli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ascoli – Empoli?
Final score: Ascoli 1-1 Empoli. The model predicted a win for Ascoli (56 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Ascoli – Empoli?
Our model gives 1 · Ascoli a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ascoli win 56 %, draw 26 %, Empoli win 18 %.