Watford
Charlton Athletic
Watford – Charlton Athletic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.34 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Watford at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.34 goals for Watford and 1.21 for Charlton Athletic. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Watford took 3 points and Charlton Athletic 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Watford, 1 draw, 1 win for Charlton Athletic. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 2.48 | 38 % | -3.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -4.3 % |
| 2Charlton Athletic | 2.77 | 34 % | -9.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Watford
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Charlton Athletic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Watford
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Charlton Athletic
- Watford1-1Charlton Athletic
- Charlton Athletic1-0Watford
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Watford – Charlton Athletic?
Our model gives 1 · Watford a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Watford win 39 %, draw 29 %, Charlton Athletic win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Watford – Charlton Athletic?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.