Predictions are closed for this match.
NEC Nijmegen
06:45 PM
Sep 8
Excelsior
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 1.84 | 51 % | +11.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 25 % | -15.8 % |
| 2Excelsior | 3.95 | 24 % | -29.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
| NEC Nijmegen | Form and statistics | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| 1633 | Elo | 1519 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 17.1 | Shots / match | 13.5 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · NEC Nijmegen a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: NEC Nijmegen win 60 %, draw 22 %, Excelsior win 18 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 64 %, and both teams scoring at 60 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.84 for NEC Nijmegen, 3.88 for the draw, 3.95 for Excelsior.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (Eredivisie), at Goffertstadion.
The model leans towards NEC Nijmegen at home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.18 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.11 for Excelsior. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, NEC Nijmegen took 6 points and Excelsior 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 0 draws, 1 win for Excelsior. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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