NEC Nijmegen
2-2
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:39 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 60 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.18 – 1.11
The short version
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior. The model predicted a win for NEC Nijmegen (60 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.18 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.11 for Excelsior. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, NEC Nijmegen took 6 points and Excelsior 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 0 draws, 1 win for Excelsior. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 1.84 | 51 % | +11.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 25 % | -15.8 % |
| 2Excelsior | 3.95 | 24 % | -29.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
NEC Nijmegen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Excelsior
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- NEC Nijmegen
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Excelsior
- Excelsior0-2NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen5-0Excelsior
- Excelsior0-3NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen3-4Excelsior
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior?
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior. The model predicted a win for NEC Nijmegen (60 %): missed prediction.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen – Excelsior?
Our model gives 1 · NEC Nijmegen a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: NEC Nijmegen win 60 %, draw 22 %, Excelsior win 18 %.