VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 16, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.23 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards VfL Wolfsburg at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.23 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.24 for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, VfL Wolfsburg took 8 points and 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 11 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 2 draws, 1 win for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfL Wolfsburg | 1.68 | 56 % | -3.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | -13.0 % |
| 21. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 4.40 | 21 % | -7.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
VfL Wolfsburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- VfL Wolfsburg
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- VfL Wolfsburg1-11. FC Heidenheim 1846
- 1. FC Heidenheim 18461-3VfL Wolfsburg
- VfL Wolfsburg0-11. FC Heidenheim 1846
- 1. FC Heidenheim 18461-3VfL Wolfsburg
- 1. FC Heidenheim 18461-1VfL Wolfsburg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FC Heidenheim 1846?
Our model gives 1 · VfL Wolfsburg a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: VfL Wolfsburg win 57 %, draw 22 %, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FC Heidenheim 1846?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.