Qingdao Hainiu
Liaoning Tieren
Qingdao Hainiu – Liaoning Tieren
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Qingdao Hainiu at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.50 goals for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.44 for Liaoning Tieren. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 18 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 5.25, the predicted outcome carries +92.9 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Qingdao Hainiu took no points and Liaoning Tieren 2 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Qingdao Hainiu, 0 draws, 1 win for Liaoning Tieren. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Qingdao Hainiu | 5.25 | 18 % | +92.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | +25.6 % |
| 2Liaoning Tieren |
Form and statistics
Qingdao Hainiu
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Liaoning Tieren
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Qingdao Hainiu
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Liaoning Tieren
- Liaoning Tieren2-1Qingdao Hainiu
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Qingdao Hainiu – Liaoning Tieren?
Our model gives 1 · Qingdao Hainiu a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Qingdao Hainiu win 37 %, draw 28 %, Liaoning Tieren win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Qingdao Hainiu – Liaoning Tieren?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.