Cerezo Osaka
Kawasaki Frontale
Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cerezo Osaka at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.25 for Kawasaki Frontale. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 34 %. Over their last five matches, Cerezo Osaka took 6 points and Kawasaki Frontale 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Cerezo Osaka, 1 draw, 1 win for Kawasaki Frontale. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cerezo Osaka | 2.75 | 34 % | +15.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -5.9 % |
| 2Kawasaki Frontale | 2.35 | 40 % | -25.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Cerezo Osaka
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kawasaki Frontale
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Cerezo Osaka
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Kawasaki Frontale
- Cerezo Osaka2-0Kawasaki Frontale
- Kawasaki Frontale2-0Cerezo Osaka
- Kawasaki Frontale1-1Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka1-0Kawasaki Frontale
- Cerezo Osaka3-0Kawasaki Frontale
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale?
Our model gives 1 · Cerezo Osaka a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cerezo Osaka win 42 %, draw 26 %, Kawasaki Frontale win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.