Necaxa
Atlas
Necaxa – Atlas
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlas away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.35 goals for Necaxa and 1.37 for Atlas. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Necaxa took 2 points and Atlas 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Necaxa, 1 draw, 2 wins for Atlas. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Necaxa | 2.50 | 37 % | -9.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -5.9 % |
| 2Atlas | 2.65 | 35 % | -2.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Necaxa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlas
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Necaxa
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Atlas
- Necaxa0-1Atlas
- Atlas3-2Necaxa
- Atlas0-4Necaxa
- Necaxa0-0Atlas
- Necaxa2-1Atlas
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Necaxa – Atlas?
Our model gives 2 · Atlas a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Necaxa win 36 %, draw 27 %, Atlas win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Necaxa – Atlas?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.