Sport
Fortaleza
Sport – Fortaleza
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sport at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Sport and 1.06 for Fortaleza. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sport took 10 points and Fortaleza 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Sport, 1 draw, 2 wins for Fortaleza. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sport | 2.35 | 39 % | -4.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -2.9 % |
| 2Fortaleza | 2.85 | 33 % | -14.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Sport
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fortaleza
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Sport
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Fortaleza
- Fortaleza2-1Sport
- Fortaleza1-0Sport
- Sport0-0Fortaleza
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sport – Fortaleza?
Our model gives 1 · Sport a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sport win 41 %, draw 29 %, Fortaleza win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Sport – Fortaleza?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.