Mirassol
Internacional
Mirassol – Internacional
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mirassol at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Mirassol and 0.98 for Internacional. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Mirassol took 8 points and Internacional 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Mirassol, 1 draw, 0 wins for Internacional. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mirassol | 2.15 | 43 % | +6.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -10.4 % |
| 2Internacional | 3.25 | 29 % | -23.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Mirassol
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Internacional
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Mirassol
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Internacional
- Internacional1-2Mirassol
- Mirassol3-1Internacional
- Internacional1-1Mirassol
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mirassol – Internacional?
Our model gives 1 · Mirassol a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mirassol win 50 %, draw 27 %, Internacional win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Mirassol – Internacional?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.