Defensa y Justicia
Instituto (Córdoba)
Defensa y Justicia – Instituto (Córdoba)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Defensa y Justicia at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.25 goals for Defensa y Justicia and 1.04 for Instituto (Córdoba). Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Defensa y Justicia took 10 points and Instituto (Córdoba) 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Defensa y Justicia, 0 draws, 2 wins for Instituto (Córdoba). Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Defensa y Justicia | 2.55 | 36 % | +3.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Instituto (Córdoba) | 2.80 | 33 % | -17.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Defensa y Justicia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Instituto (Córdoba)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Defensa y Justicia
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Instituto (Córdoba)
- Instituto (Córdoba)2-0Defensa y Justicia
- Instituto (Córdoba)4-1Defensa y Justicia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Defensa y Justicia – Instituto (Córdoba)?
Our model gives 1 · Defensa y Justicia a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Defensa y Justicia win 41 %, draw 30 %, Instituto (Córdoba) win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Defensa y Justicia – Instituto (Córdoba)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.