Burnley
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.41 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Burnley at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.41 goals for Burnley and 1.32 for Wolverhampton Wanderers. Bookmakers say the same thing: 33 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Burnley took 6 points and Wolverhampton Wanderers 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Burnley, 2 draws, 2 wins for Wolverhampton Wanderers. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burnley | 2.85 | 33 % | +6.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -2.5 % |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.30 | 41 % | -19.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Burnley
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Burnley
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Burnley1-1Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3Burnley
- Wolverhampton Wanderers2-0Burnley
- Burnley1-1Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Wolverhampton Wanderers1-0Burnley
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Our model gives 1 · Burnley a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burnley win 37 %, draw 28 %, Wolverhampton Wanderers win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.