Le Mans
Toulouse
Le Mans – Toulouse
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Le Mans at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Le Mans and 1.31 for Toulouse. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, Le Mans took 5 points and Toulouse 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Le Mans | 2.92 | 32 % | +10.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | +4.3 % |
| 2Toulouse | 2.30 | 41 % | -24.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Le Mans
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Toulouse
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Le Mans – Toulouse?
Our model gives 1 · Le Mans a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Le Mans win 38 %, draw 29 %, Toulouse win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for Le Mans – Toulouse?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.