Frosinone
Sassuolo
Frosinone – Sassuolo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.75 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Frosinone at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.75 goals for Frosinone and 1.08 for Sassuolo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 38 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.48, the predicted outcome carries +29.4 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Frosinone took 8 points and Sassuolo 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Frosinone, 1 draw, 2 wins for Sassuolo. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Frosinone | 2.48 | 38 % | +29.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -10.9 % |
| 2Sassuolo | 2.60 |
Form and statistics
Frosinone
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sassuolo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Frosinone
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Sassuolo
- Sassuolo1-1Frosinone
- Sassuolo0-1Frosinone
- Frosinone1-2Sassuolo
- Sassuolo1-0Frosinone
- Frosinone4-2Sassuolo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Frosinone – Sassuolo?
Our model gives 1 · Frosinone a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Frosinone win 52 %, draw 25 %, Sassuolo win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Frosinone – Sassuolo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.