Hellas Verona
Catanzaro
Hellas Verona – Catanzaro
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hellas Verona at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for Hellas Verona and 1.07 for Catanzaro. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Hellas Verona took 9 points and Catanzaro 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hellas Verona | 1.80 | 52 % | -14.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +7.6 % |
| 2Catanzaro | 4.10 | 23 % | -0.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Hellas Verona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Catanzaro
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hellas Verona – Catanzaro?
Our model gives 1 · Hellas Verona a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hellas Verona win 47 %, draw 28 %, Catanzaro win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Hellas Verona – Catanzaro?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.