Leganés
Córdoba
Leganés – Córdoba
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 15, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Leganés at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for Leganés and 1.30 for Córdoba. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Leganés took 3 points and Córdoba 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Leganés, 1 draw, 1 win for Córdoba. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leganés | 2.25 | 42 % | -17.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +0.4 % |
| 2Córdoba | 2.90 | 32 % | +1.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Leganés
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Córdoba
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Leganés
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Córdoba
- Córdoba2-1Leganés
- Leganés0-0Córdoba
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leganés – Córdoba?
Our model gives 1 · Leganés a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Leganés win 37 %, draw 28 %, Córdoba win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Leganés – Córdoba?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.